Lake Sherwood, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

195
FXUS66 KLOX 131757
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
957 AM PST Tue Jan 13 2026

.SYNOPSIS...13/955 AM.

An offshore flow pattern beneath an upper-level ridge of high
pressure will continue very warm and dry conditions across the
region. Gusty Santa Ana winds will continue through at least
Thursday. The warmest day is likely to be Wednesday, then a slow
and gradual cooling trend is expected through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...13/951 AM.

A strong offshore flow regime remains in place beneath a
blocking ridge of high pressure this morning. Gusty northeast
winds continue across the Southland region with the strongest
winds occurring up in the Los Angeles County mountains. The
overall pattern will keep much warmer than normal daytime
temperatures in the forecast through much of the week. A warming
trend will very likely continue into Wednesday with Wednesday
likely being the warmest day of the week. As record high
temperatures are quite a bit higher for today and Wednesday, no
widespread record breaking temperatures are expected. There is a
moderate chance that a few stations could reach record highs for
the day on Wednesday. The highest chance of any record being
broken would be sites like Sandberg.

The main problem of the day will continue to be the gusty Santa
Ana winds in place across the Southland. A wind advisory is in
effect until 2 pm this afternoon for much of the area valley and
mountain areas in the typical Santa Ana wind corridor, but the
latest forecast ensembles continue to suggest high probabilities
of gusty northeast winds lingering into Wednesday afternoon across
the mountains and some valleys. The model data and ensemble data
will be closely monitored and an update to wind headlines will
likely 18Z model solutions arrive.

No updates to the forecast are planned at this time.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

Overall, 00Z models in very good synoptic agreement through the
short term period. At upper levels, ridge will peak in strength
over the West Coast on Wednesday then begin to weaken on Thursday.
At the surface, moderate offshore gradients are forecast to
continue through Thursday.

As has been the story the last several days, main issues will be
winds and temperatures. With respect to winds, moderate offshore
gradients (LAX-DAG around -6.0 MB) will continue to produce gusty
offshore winds across the area, especially the Santa Ana prone
areas of Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Advisory-level
northeast winds are likely today through Wednesday, dropping down
to a chance of advisory-level winds on Thursday. So, will keep the
WIND ADVISORIES in effect for the Santa Ana wind corridors of
Ventura and LA counties through Wednesday afternoon. Also, will
need to continue to watch the Santa Lucia range as northeasterly
winds could approach advisory-level this morning and again
Wednesday morning.

As for temperatures, the combination of offshore surface flow and
peaking upper level ridge will bring unseasonably warm conditions
to the area through Thursday. At this time, the warmest day looks
to be Wednesday for areas west of the mountains with Thursday the
warmest day for interior sections. Throughout the period,
temperatures will be 10-15 degrees above seasonal normals, but
will likely not break any records. Overnight lows will be chilly
in wind-sheltered areas, dropping into the 30s, but do not
anticipate any need for any non-routine products.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...13/205 AM.

For the extended, deterministic models, and their respective
ensembles, remain on the same synoptic page. At upper levels,
ridge will gradually weaken through the period. At the surface,
offshore gradients will continue through the period, although they
will gradually weaken from day-to-day.

Forecast-wise, dry weather will continue through the upcoming
weekend. For most areas, skies will remain mostly clear. However,
there is a chance for a return of some marine layer stratus/fog by
Monday morning, but confidence in that forecast is low at this
time. As for winds, do not anticipate anything more than continued
weak offshore winds, remaining below advisory levels. As for
temperatures, will anticipate a slow and gradual cooling trend
through Monday, but temperatures will still remain several degrees
above normal.

As for rain chances, models are still indicating some potential
for a return of some rain by the middle of next week. However,
confidence in any rain remains low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...13/1729Z.

At 1656Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surfaced
based inversion with a top at 1300 ft and a temperature of 20 C.


High confidence in CAVU TAFs. Moderate confidence in winds for
KOXR, KCMA, KVNY, and KBUR (+/- 10 kt). High confidence elsewhere.

Gusty NE winds with LLWS and light to moderate turbulence is
likely over and near mountainous terrain, focused across Los
Angeles and Ventura counties.

KLAX...High confidence in CAVU TAF. No significant east wind
component expected.

KBUR...High confidence in CAVU TAF. 10% chance for NE wind gusts
up to 15 kts to surface through 22Z today, and again after
14/06Z. Light to moderate turbulence and LLWS likely through the
period.

&&

.MARINE...13/908 AM.

Northeast winds will continue across nearshore portions of the
Ventura, Los Angeles, and Orange, and San Luis Obispo county
coasts and out to Santa Cruz Island through Saturday morning.
These winds will create locally choppy seas, especially at their
peak speeds in the early morning to early afternoon hours.
Periods of 15-25 knot winds will occur across the aforementioned
areas, with highest likelihood from Channel Islands Harbor
through Malibu and out to Santa Cruz Island during the early
morning through early afternoon hours from Wed night through Sat
morning.

There is a very low chance (10%) for northeast wind gusts of
15-25 knots to impact Avalon and Two Harbors over the next few
days, but chances increase slightly (20-30%) early Thurs through
Sat morning.

Elsewhere and otherwise conditions will remain unseasonably mild
into next week. Seas across the Outer Waters will continue to
lower through tonight.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 2 PM PST Wednesday for
      zones 88-354-355-358-362-369>372-374>376-378-379. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 2 PM PST Wednesday for zones
      355-362. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Hall/Thompson
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...Hall

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox